A controversial referendum in Venezuela is sparking fears that Maduro’s regime is planning to annex part of neighboring Guyana

The scenario of a regional war is real, commentators warned, while some analysts are also considering a possible political calculation by Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, who could use the referendum to prepare his campaign for next year’s elections.

Venezuelans vote Sunday in a consultative referendum to decide on a possible seizure of a large swath of neighboring Guiana, with Caracas arguing that territory was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago.

Guyana sees the referendum as a step toward annexation, and the vote unsettles its residents.

The consultation asks Venezuelans whether they agree to the establishment of a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, by granting Venezuelan citizenship to current and future residents of the area, and rejecting the jurisdiction of the UN, which has begun a procedure to resolve the disagreement between the two South American countries.

The International Court of Justice on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action that could alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo, but judges did not specifically prohibit officials from holding Sunday’s referendum. Guyana had asked the court to order Venezuela to halt, at least partially, the vote.

The legal and practical implications of the referendum remain unclear. But in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, international court president Joan E. Donoghue said statements by the Venezuelan government suggested it was “taking steps to gain control of the disputed territory and administer it.”

“Moreover, Venezuelan military officials have announced that Venezuela is taking concrete steps to build an airstrip to serve as a logistical fulcrum for the integral development of Essequibo,” she said.

The 159,500-square-kilometer territory represents two-thirds of Guyana and also borders Brazil, which announced earlier this week that it had “stepped up its defense actions” and increased its military presence in the region.

Venezuela has increased its military presence near the border, and Guyana has raised the possibility of allowing foreign military bases to be set up in the area.

Is it possible for this dispute to turn into war? “It’s a scenario,” Josmar Fernandez, a Venezuelan expert on conflict resolution, told AFP. “When you talk about territory, you also talk about nationalist sentiment,” she said.

An oil-rich territory

Essequibo is rich in mineral resources. It also provides access to an area of the Atlantic where oil was discovered in commercial quantities in 2015.

In October this year, US company Exxon – which leads a consortium that produces oil in the South American country – made another discovery in waters claimed by Venezuela. Drilling tenders have been awarded to companies such as Exxon, French group Total and local company Sispro.

Oil is transforming Guyana’s economy, which grew 62 percent last year, according to the IMF, and is projected to grow another 37 percent this year. With reserves of about 11 billion barrels and a population of just 800,000, the country has the highest amount of oil per capita in the world.

Meanwhile, Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and in its heyday at the turn of the century was pumping about 3 million barrels a day.

Mismanagement, corruption and sanctions, however, led to the collapse of production.

What Venezuela wants

Officials in Caracas have always considered Essequibo to be Venezuelan territory because the region was within its borders during the Spanish colonial period, and has long challenged the border decided by international arbitrators in 1899, when Guyana was still a British colony.

This boundary was decided by arbitrators from Britain, Russia and the United States. The U.S. represented Venezuela on the commission, in part because the Venezuelan government broke diplomatic relations with Britain.

Venezuelan officials have repeatedly denounced the decision and argue that a 1966 agreement to resolve the dispute effectively nullified the original arbitration.

Guyana, South America’s only English-speaking country, claims the original agreement is legal and binding and asked the International Court of Justice in 2018 to rule on it, but a ruling is years away.

Sunday’s voters will have to answer whether they “agree to reject by all means, in accordance with the law,” the 1899 border and whether they support the 1966 agreement “as the only valid legal instrument” to reach a solution.

Maduro and his allies are urging voters to answer “yes” to all five questions of the consultation.

A possible political calculation

Meanwhile, many analysts are wondering whether Venezuela will really try to annex the territory.

They say the referendum exercise is aimed at bolstering domestic support for Maduro ahead of elections Venezuela has agreed to hold next year in exchange for relief from U.S. sanctions.

“Political calculations are prompting Maduro to escalate tensions in an attempt to stir up nationalist sentiment, but those same political calculations also limit his military options,” said Theodore Kahn, regional director at consulting firm Control Risks.

“A real invasion would close the door to negotiations with the US and force the Biden administration to reimpose sanctions on the oil sector,” he told the Financial Times.

Maduro, commentators say, must mobilize party loyalists to defend two decades of rule during which the party and its predecessors isolated Venezuela, destroyed the state’s oil industry and fueled mass emigration.

Luis Vicente León, who heads Caracas-based research firm Datanálisis, said the government was using the referendum to reduce the perceived impact of the opposition’s primary elections in October, ahead of next year’s vote. The primaries attracted 2.4 million voters to the polls, far beyond expectations.

“It is also a test of the government’s ability to engage its political apparatus and mobilize voters,” León said. “In addition, it presses the opposition to take a stand on a sensitive issue and gives him (Maduro) a potential excuse to declare a state of emergency and avoid elections altogether.”

Maduro, installed in power after Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, has yet to officially announce his candidacy in the upcoming elections. However, he is expected to run despite a 20% approval rating amid an economic and humanitarian crisis.